Despite ongoing talks about expanding the College Football Playoff to 16 or 24 teams, the format will remain at 12 teams for the 2026-27 season. As a result, the “To Miss the College Football Playoff” betting market lets gamblers wager on which programs will fail to qualify.
Lane Kiffin’s arrival in Baton Rouge shook the SEC over the past six months, yet LSU has opened as a surprising favorite (-190) to miss the CFP in his first year. However, the Tigers are not alone in facing significant doubt.
In Year 3 under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama (-185) is also favored to miss the Playoff, while Michigan (-350) is heavily expected to fall short in Kyle Whittingham’s first season. The Crimson Tide lost quarterback Ty Simpson to the NFL and must improve a rushing attack that ranked 126th in yards per carry last season. For the Wolverines, Bryce Underwood returns under an entirely new coaching staff that includes offensive coordinator Jason Becht.
On the flip side, oddsmakers anticipate the Big Ten will once again dominate the CFP picture. Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon are all viewed as likely participants based on early numbers. The Hoosiers, fresh off a national championship, reloaded via the transfer portal by adding former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover to replace Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. Ohio State brings back quarterback Julian Sayin and superstar wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, while Oregon returns star QB Dante Moore.
Notre Dame stands apart with the best odds to make the Playoff. Despite losing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the NFL, the Fighting Irish return Heisman Trophy favorite CJ Carr, four starting offensive linemen, and a defense expected to be among the nation’s best.
Recent odds from FanDuel Sportsbook (as of May 6) for “To Miss the College Football Playoff 2026-27” are as follows:
– USC: -360
– Michigan: -350
– Oklahoma: -300
– Ole Miss: -220
– LSU: -190
– Alabama: -185
– Texas A&M: -160
– Texas Tech: +130
– Texas: +150
– Georgia: +180
– Ohio State: +200
– Oregon: +220
– Miami (FL): +230
– Indiana: +260
– Notre Dame: +470
